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I don't think that's true because the rate at which I was getting new hats seemed pretty consistent all throughout this event, then all at once I got 34 (now in the 40s, actually) gralats in a row. I think it's trick vs. item vs. hat vs. gralats. I got all of my items really quickly, otherwise I'd assume it was trick vs. item/hat vs. gralats.
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Say there are 5 items to get.
First, you have the first two chances: 50/50 split of trick or treat.
Then, assuming you get a treat, you have a 50/50 chance of gralats or an item.
Assuming you get an item, let's hypothetically say there are 50 possible hats to win. Let's also assume you have 40/50 of the hats. If the code simple gives you gralats if you already have an item, we may as well factor in that 40/50 chance into the 50/50 chance of getting gralats.
I'm not good at math, but I think that's a 5/100 chance of obtaining a new item instead of gralats.
Anyways, I'll verify... right now.
Okay, it works like this. You have a low chance of getting an item. An item is any prize that is not a hat or gralats. If you already have an item, it checks if you can get a hat. If you already have the hat, it gives you gralats. Now, you have a larger chance of getting a hat than an item, but lower than a chance of getting gralats. If you have a hat, it tries to give you an item. If you have an item, again, it falls back and just gives you gralats.
Point is, if you have an item or hat, it does not try to cycle through and find you a new item. It just gives you gralats. As you obtain more of the items, the chance to get gralats instead increases, as the item slots(all the items you can get) gradually fill up with a gralat reward. If you have 99/100 of items, that's a .0025% chance of getting that last single item alltogether(factoring in the trick/treat).
However, I am not particularly good with math, and certainly not of probability. Maybe someone else can verify.