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There's not enough evidence to suggest that it works. "Maybe" isn't enough of a reason to stray from a method that is commonly used and has been proven to improve player's attitudes.
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Nothing is 100% due to the individual so "maybe" is a valid reason still. And this is why i suggested to use both systems, too many flaws by just going with one, ban the little stuff and jail the big stuff and it'll be far more effective than just going with one